Sampling, bias & the sampling distribution
A statistic computed from a sample varies from sample to sample, and its distribution across all possible samples is the sampling distribution. For the sample mean, E[x̄] = μ and SD(x̄) = σ/√n — the standard error. That √n is the fundamental economics of statistics: quadrupling the sample size only halves the uncertainty.
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Method: how to approach it
The order below is what examiners expect to see, and each step carries its own marks.
- Identify the sampling methodSimple random, stratified, cluster, systematic, or convenience. Only probability samples support inference.
- Look for biasSelection bias, non-response bias and measurement bias each push estimates in a systematic direction that a bigger sample will not fix.
- Compute the standard errorSE = σ/√n for a mean, or √(p(1−p)/n) for a proportion.
- State the sampling distributionx̄ ~ N(μ, σ²/n) exactly for normal data, and approximately for large n by the CLT.
Worked example
A population has μ = 50 and σ = 12. Describe the distribution of x̄ for samples of size 36.
- The mean of the sampling distribution is E[x̄] = μ = 50.
- The standard error is σ/√n = 12/√36.
- = 12/6 = 2.
- With n = 36 the CLT makes the distribution approximately normal.
Answer. x̄ is approximately N(50, 2²) — centred on 50 with a standard error of 2, six times tighter than individual observations.
Where marks get dropped
These are the specific errors that cost credit on sampling, bias & the sampling distribution questions — QED's rubric penalises each of them separately.
- Confusing the standard deviation of the population with the standard error of the mean. The latter is smaller by a factor of √n.
- Believing a large sample fixes bias. A biased sampling method gives a precisely wrong answer — the classic 1936 Literary Digest poll had 2.4 million responses and still called the election wrongly.
- Dividing by n rather than √n in the standard error.
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Sampling, bias & the sampling distribution — frequently asked questions
What is the difference between σ and the standard error?
σ measures the spread of individual observations; the standard error measures the spread of the sample MEAN across repeated samples. SE = σ/√n.
Why does √n appear?
Because variances add for independent observations: Var(x̄) = Var(ΣX)/n² = nσ²/n² = σ²/n. Taking the square root gives σ/√n.
Does the population size matter?
Barely, provided the sample is a small fraction of it. A sample of 1000 works about as well for a city as for a country — the finite population correction is negligible.
The rest of Statistics
Describing data, distributions, estimation and hypothesis tests. Each subtopic below has its own method, worked example and mark-losing traps.
- 1Mean, median & mode
- 2Variance, standard deviation & spread
- 3Shape, skew & outliers
- 4Boxplots, histograms & quartiles
- 5The normal distribution & z-scores
- 6Sampling, bias & the sampling distribution
- 7The central limit theorem
- 8Confidence intervals for a mean
- 9Hypothesis testing & p-values
- 10t-tests & comparing two means
- 11Chi-square tests for independence
- 12Correlation & least-squares regression
- 13Type I / Type II errors & power
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